Team USA – 2013 Team Analysis

Alright, here are all of the numbers that you never knew you wanted. You may still not want them, but if you’re a super nerd like me, analyzing teams is fun! Here are some select optimized teams using team USA’s 2013 scores. This kind of optimization, particularly with the average scores, was quite successful in predicting the members of the fierce five (not that we didn’t all see that team coming).

These are not all of the teams that I have calculated (only about 1/3), and if you are interested in seeing more of them, I’d be happy to publish them as well (or send you my mess of a spreadsheet). I am, however, only going to publish two teams in each category of gymnast’s high scores, low scores, average scores and highest credited difficulty scores.  Those categories are

• Six-person teams using scores of gymnasts from the 2013 Senior National Team
  This is essentially who we would expect to have made a world team this year if there had been a team competition at worlds
• Five-person teams using scores of gymnasts from the 2013 Senior and Junior National Teams, in addition to gymnasts who are not on the current national team but competed internationally this year
  These teams can be thought of as a super early, unrealistic Rio prediction. Please keep in mind, this is just what the number are telling us. If I took a stats class, maybe I would be able to calculate how unrepresentative this type of data has been in the past, but I’m not really into stats (okay, this is all kind of stats related, but I used CS so it’s okay!)

These scores are almost all from USAG’s official results page. If difficulty scores weren’t listed there, the girls lose out on that difficulty. If somebody wants to provide additional difficulty scores, feel free to do so. I got some of the Mexican Open scores, but not all of them. I wanted to include that because it was a legitimate international assignment. You can see the scores I was working with here (I strongly recommend downloading the excel file).

Alright, here they are. Some of the teams, with counting scores in bold!

HIGH SCORES

6 Seniors	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor	All Around
Simone Biles	15.933	14.850	15.100	15.233	61.116
McKayla Maroney	16.000	14.300	12.666	15.250	58.216
Elizabeth Price	15.700	14.833	13.833	14.466	58.832
Kyla Ross	15.366	15.500	15.250	14.500	60.616
MyKayla Skinner	15.250	13.550	14.250	15.000	58.050
Madison Kocian	14.950	15.000	14.800	13.700	58.450
Total	47.633	45.350	45.150	45.483	183.616

5 Gymnasts	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor	All Around
Simone Biles	15.933	14.85	15.1	15.233	61.116
McKayla Maroney	16	14.3	12.666	15.25	58.216
Elizabeth Price	15.7	14.833	13.833	14.466	58.832
Kyla Ross	15.366	15.5	15.25	14.5	60.616
Bailie Key	15.1	14.45	15.55	15	60.1
Total	47.633	45.183	45.9	45.483	184.199

AVERAGE SCORES

6 Seniors	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor	All Around
Simone Biles	15.852	14.391	14.485	14.692	59.419
McKayla Maroney	15.775	14.300	12.666	14.696	57.437
Kyla Ross	15.247	15.250	14.759	14.069	59.325
Kennedy Baker	14.117	13.617	14.417	14.300	56.450
Madison Kocian	14.700	14.517	13.617	13.417	56.250
Madison Desch	14.600	12.175	13.733	14.650	55.158
Total	46.874	44.157	43.661	44.037	178.729

5 Gymnasts	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor	All Around
Simone Biles	15.852	14.391	14.485	14.692	59.419
McKayla Maroney	15.775	14.300	12.666	14.696	57.437
Kyla Ross	15.247	15.250	14.759	14.069	59.325
Norah Flatley	13.783	14.000	15.050	13.467	56.300
Katelyn Ohashi	14.900	14.566	15.333	14.400	59.199
Total	46.874	44.207	45.142	43.787	180.010

LOW SCORES
note: I let Ohashi’s scores count as highs and averages, but I am not counting them as lows.

6 Seniors	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor	All Around
Kennedy Baker	13.850	13.550	14.300	14.050	55.750
Simone Biles	15.733	13.05	13.133	13.7	55.616
Madison Kocian	14.450	14.100	12.800	12.900	54.250
McKayla Maroney	15.6	14.3	12.666	14.333	56.899
Elizabeth Price	14.233	12.25	13.5	14.366	54.349
Kyla Ross	15.166	14.55	14.533	13.35	57.599
Total	46.499	42.950	42.333	42.749	174.531

5 Gymnasts	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor	All Around
Kennedy Baker	13.850	13.550	14.300	14.050	55.750
Simone Biles	15.733	13.05	13.133	13.7	55.616
Norah Flatley	13.750	13.750	14.600	13.250	55.350
McKayla Maroney	15.6	14.3	12.666	14.333	56.899
Kyla Ross	15.166	14.55	14.533	13.35	57.599
Total	46.499	42.600	43.433	42.083	174.615

DIFFICULTY SCORES

6 Seniors	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor	All Around
Simone Biles	6.3	6.1	6.3	6.5	25.2
Peyton Ernst	5.8	6.0	6.3	6.0	24.1
Kyla Ross	5.8	6.4	6.0	5.7	23.9
MyKayla Skinner	6.4	5.6	6.2	6.4	24.6
Lexie Priessman	6.3	5.9	5.4	6.3	23.9
Elizabeth Price	5.8	6.3	0.0	0.0	12.1
Total	19	18.8	18.8	19.2	75.8

5 Gymnasts	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor	All Around
Simone Biles	6.3	6.1	6.3	6.5	25.2
Brenna Dowell	6.3	6.1	5.8	6.2	24.4
Kyla Ross	5.8	6.4	6.0	5.7	23.9
MyKayla Skinner	6.4	5.6	6.2	6.4	24.6
Bailie Key	5.8	5.4	6.5	6.0	23.7
Total	19.0	18.6	19.0	19.1	75.7

QUICK OBSERVATIONS

• Biles, Maroney and Ross are on all of the teams (excluding difficulty for Maroney). They really are carrying this team
• I expected to see Brenna and Bailie on more of these teams.
• I was surprised to see Flatley, Baker and Desch on these teams, especially the average score teams which are most representative of the true situation.
• There were 924 possible combinations of gymnasts to make up each of the 6 senior teams. There were 26,334(!) possible combinations of gymnasts to make up each of the 5 gymnast teams. Math is fun, guys!