Team USA – 2013 Team Analysis
Alright, here are all of the numbers that you never knew you wanted. You may still not want them, but if you’re a super nerd like me, analyzing teams is fun! Here are some select optimized teams using team USA’s 2013 scores. This kind of optimization, particularly with the average scores, was quite successful in predicting the members of the fierce five (not that we didn’t all see that team coming).
These are not all of the teams that I have calculated (only about 1/3), and if you are interested in seeing more of them, I’d be happy to publish them as well (or send you my mess of a spreadsheet). I am, however, only going to publish two teams in each category of gymnast’s high scores, low scores, average scores and highest credited difficulty scores. Those categories are
- Six-person teams using scores of gymnasts from the 2013 Senior National Team
This is essentially who we would expect to have made a world team this year if there had been a team competition at worlds - Five-person teams using scores of gymnasts from the 2013 Senior and Junior National Teams, in addition to gymnasts who are not on the current national team but competed internationally this year
These teams can be thought of as a super early, unrealistic Rio prediction. Please keep in mind, this is just what the number are telling us. If I took a stats class, maybe I would be able to calculate how unrepresentative this type of data has been in the past, but I’m not really into stats (okay, this is all kind of stats related, but I used CS so it’s okay!)
These scores are almost all from USAG’s official results page. If difficulty scores weren’t listed there, the girls lose out on that difficulty. If somebody wants to provide additional difficulty scores, feel free to do so. I got some of the Mexican Open scores, but not all of them. I wanted to include that because it was a legitimate international assignment. You can see the scores I was working with here (I strongly recommend downloading the excel file).
Alright, here they are. Some of the teams, with counting scores in bold!
HIGH SCORES
6 Seniors | Vault | Bars | Beam | Floor | All Around |
Simone Biles | 15.933 | 14.850 | 15.100 | 15.233 | 61.116 |
McKayla Maroney | 16.000 | 14.300 | 12.666 | 15.250 | 58.216 |
Elizabeth Price | 15.700 | 14.833 | 13.833 | 14.466 | 58.832 |
Kyla Ross | 15.366 | 15.500 | 15.250 | 14.500 | 60.616 |
MyKayla Skinner | 15.250 | 13.550 | 14.250 | 15.000 | 58.050 |
Madison Kocian | 14.950 | 15.000 | 14.800 | 13.700 | 58.450 |
Total | 47.633 | 45.350 | 45.150 | 45.483 | 183.616 |
5 Gymnasts | Vault | Bars | Beam | Floor | All Around |
Simone Biles | 15.933 | 14.85 | 15.1 | 15.233 | 61.116 |
McKayla Maroney | 16 | 14.3 | 12.666 | 15.25 | 58.216 |
Elizabeth Price | 15.7 | 14.833 | 13.833 | 14.466 | 58.832 |
Kyla Ross | 15.366 | 15.5 | 15.25 | 14.5 | 60.616 |
Bailie Key | 15.1 | 14.45 | 15.55 | 15 | 60.1 |
Total | 47.633 | 45.183 | 45.9 | 45.483 | 184.199 |
AVERAGE SCORES
6 Seniors | Vault | Bars | Beam | Floor | All Around |
Simone Biles | 15.852 | 14.391 | 14.485 | 14.692 | 59.419 |
McKayla Maroney | 15.775 | 14.300 | 12.666 | 14.696 | 57.437 |
Kyla Ross | 15.247 | 15.250 | 14.759 | 14.069 | 59.325 |
Kennedy Baker | 14.117 | 13.617 | 14.417 | 14.300 | 56.450 |
Madison Kocian | 14.700 | 14.517 | 13.617 | 13.417 | 56.250 |
Madison Desch | 14.600 | 12.175 | 13.733 | 14.650 | 55.158 |
Total | 46.874 | 44.157 | 43.661 | 44.037 | 178.729 |
5 Gymnasts | Vault | Bars | Beam | Floor | All Around |
Simone Biles | 15.852 | 14.391 | 14.485 | 14.692 | 59.419 |
McKayla Maroney | 15.775 | 14.300 | 12.666 | 14.696 | 57.437 |
Kyla Ross | 15.247 | 15.250 | 14.759 | 14.069 | 59.325 |
Norah Flatley | 13.783 | 14.000 | 15.050 | 13.467 | 56.300 |
Katelyn Ohashi | 14.900 | 14.566 | 15.333 | 14.400 | 59.199 |
Total | 46.874 | 44.207 | 45.142 | 43.787 | 180.010 |
LOW SCORES
note: I let Ohashi’s scores count as highs and averages, but I am not counting them as lows.
6 Seniors | Vault | Bars | Beam | Floor | All Around |
Kennedy Baker | 13.850 | 13.550 | 14.300 | 14.050 | 55.750 |
Simone Biles | 15.733 | 13.05 | 13.133 | 13.7 | 55.616 |
Madison Kocian | 14.450 | 14.100 | 12.800 | 12.900 | 54.250 |
McKayla Maroney | 15.6 | 14.3 | 12.666 | 14.333 | 56.899 |
Elizabeth Price | 14.233 | 12.25 | 13.5 | 14.366 | 54.349 |
Kyla Ross | 15.166 | 14.55 | 14.533 | 13.35 | 57.599 |
Total | 46.499 | 42.950 | 42.333 | 42.749 | 174.531 |
5 Gymnasts | Vault | Bars | Beam | Floor | All Around |
Kennedy Baker | 13.850 | 13.550 | 14.300 | 14.050 | 55.750 |
Simone Biles | 15.733 | 13.05 | 13.133 | 13.7 | 55.616 |
Norah Flatley | 13.750 | 13.750 | 14.600 | 13.250 | 55.350 |
McKayla Maroney | 15.6 | 14.3 | 12.666 | 14.333 | 56.899 |
Kyla Ross | 15.166 | 14.55 | 14.533 | 13.35 | 57.599 |
Total | 46.499 | 42.600 | 43.433 | 42.083 | 174.615 |
DIFFICULTY SCORES
6 Seniors | Vault | Bars | Beam | Floor | All Around |
Simone Biles | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 25.2 |
Peyton Ernst | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 24.1 |
Kyla Ross | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 23.9 |
MyKayla Skinner | 6.4 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 24.6 |
Lexie Priessman | 6.3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 23.9 |
Elizabeth Price | 5.8 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.1 |
Total | 19 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 19.2 | 75.8 |
5 Gymnasts | Vault | Bars | Beam | Floor | All Around |
Simone Biles | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 25.2 |
Brenna Dowell | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 24.4 |
Kyla Ross | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 23.9 |
MyKayla Skinner | 6.4 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 24.6 |
Bailie Key | 5.8 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 23.7 |
Total | 19.0 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 19.1 | 75.7 |
QUICK OBSERVATIONS
- Biles, Maroney and Ross are on all of the teams (excluding difficulty for Maroney). They really are carrying this team
- I expected to see Brenna and Bailie on more of these teams.
- I was surprised to see Flatley, Baker and Desch on these teams, especially the average score teams which are most representative of the true situation.
- There were 924 possible combinations of gymnasts to make up each of the 6 senior teams. There were 26,334(!) possible combinations of gymnasts to make up each of the 5 gymnast teams. Math is fun, guys!
america is great, but i’m also proud of this guy from singapore! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbzwvgssVuI
What would it be if you took out baker (since she is now officially retired) and I ohashi (since she has been out for basically a year)?
This must take a lot of time end effort, but it looks great when you get it published on here. Great work, and thanks for the stats!