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A Little Olympic Preview

July 10, 2012
by

I really wanted to write more, but somehow I didn’t leave myself enough time, so here is a preview of team finals and the all around.

The Team Competition

Medal Contenders

As always, the medal contenders in the team competition will be the USA, Russia, Romania and China.

Possible Finalists

It’s easy to say for the team competition because there are only 12 possibilities. I’d say that Brazil is probably out. Great Britain, Japan, Canada, Italy, France, Australia and Germany all have a shot. Germany, after their surprise 6th at worlds last year, has seemed weaker, and they seemed to pick a team based on potential individual results, not team qualification, so they may be out. After a disappointing 5th at worlds, Australia could be in trouble, but they have looked pretty good. I know that I want Canada and Great Britain to make it. I guess if I had to predict, it would be Canada, Great Britain, Japan and Italy, but that could be 100% incorrect.

Medal Predictions

I want to say USA first, Romania second, Russia third.

Why?

I think it’s a pretty safe bet, in that I’m not counting on any team to do something that they have not been doing lately. Leaving the defending team champion off of the podium may seem crazy to casual fans, but the US and Russia have undeniably been the two powers of the quad and Romania may be gunning for the top spot with their revived team. The US looks good for gold, but it’s not 100% locked up. Russia could win or implode. I trust that Romania will hit, hit, hit, even though they haven’t exactly been doing that at worlds during this quadrennium.

What will it come down to?

As always, you hope that it comes down to the little things, stuck landings and all, and then if your favorite loses, you always blame that one landing. Really, though, I think it depends on a variety of factors. The US has the vault advantage, but Russia should have two Amanars (there would be no reason to take Paseka without one, and Komova has been shown training it), Romania should have at least one Amanar (Iordache), maybe a Cheng (Izbasa) and possibly an Amanar from Ponor and China has one from Huang. If bars scores for the Chinese look like what they have lately, they’re going to have a hard time, because a monstrous beam rotation (probably 2 world champions and a world silver medallist) can’t pull them out of the hole they are going to be in. For Russia, bars is the only sure bet. If I could watch this live, I would have a very hard time sitting through their vault rotation (no ACLs, please), their beam rotation (2 of Grishina, Komova and Afanasyeva) and their floor rotation (remember Euros?). It could actually be quite terrifying. Romania will hit routine after routine, but they’re going to be the only top team counting a 13 without a fall. The US team looks good everywhere and will be a force to be reckoned with. I expect something like 1st on vault, 2nd or 3rd on bars and beam and 2nd on floor from them.

The All Around Competition

Medal Contenders

Gabrielle Douglas, Jordyn Wieber, Alexandra Raisman if one of them has lots of trouble in prelims, Aliya Mustafina, Viktoria Komova, Yao Jinnan and Larisa Iordache. I don’t see anyone stopping that from being the group that starts on vault, unless one of them falls in prelims and Huang Qiushuang hits everything.

Possible Finalists

This is a little bit tougher, because there are so many of them. I won’t try to make up an entire list, but here’s who I’d like to see: Sandra Izbasa, Hannah Whelan, Elisabeth Seitz, Celine Van Gerner, Kristina Vaculik, Victoria Moors, Anne Kuhm, Vanessa Ferrari and Carlotta Ferlito.

Medal Predictions

 This is a tough one because there are so many legitimate contenders. I’m thinking it’ll be a combination of Komova, Iordache, Douglas and Wieber. If everyone hits, maybe Komova, Douglas, Iordache? It’s hard to take one of those girls off of the podium for Wieber, but I still see her there, I just don’t know who will miss, I guess.

Why?

 I’d say that they are the most balanced. Iordache is a little bit worse than Wieber on vault (with an Amanar) and bars, but better on beam and floor. We know that Douglas is up there if she hits. Komova probably has the highest potential difficulty, higher than Douglas, but I’m worried about her making it through beam and floor.
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9 Comments leave one →
  1. Tmoney permalink
    July 10, 2012 1:50 PM

    Jordyn will peak at the right time. Shell have her bb and surprise all of you. I see her fired up and ready to hit. She will be gunning for gabby.

  2. July 10, 2012 10:05 PM

    Jordyn’s beam is likely to go down in SV when it’s fixed at camp, hopefully not by much as she currently ties Gabby for matched difficulty (25.5). I do think she really is being primed to peak exactly right, very important since she will do everything in TF and prelims, as well as of course AA and probably two in the EF!

    And yes, Vika does beat them with an amanar, 25.6. BUT Iordache can beat her by a point if she brings full potential and an amanar and hits everything.Very, very interesting.

    • Tmoney permalink
      July 12, 2012 2:21 PM

      Lordache shouldn’t get the benefits she has been getting in London. Plus the armarar is easier said then done its going to come down between jordyn gabby and komova. Jhopefully jordyn peaks and wins

  3. Cecile permalink
    July 11, 2012 6:10 PM

    I agree with the medalists and everything, but I think Asutralia will be in team finals and Canada wouldn’t… and that is coming from a girl that lives in Canada…. :S

  4. Anonymous permalink
    July 13, 2012 11:26 AM

    I’d love to hear your medal predictions for the four apparatuses.

  5. Monica permalink
    July 14, 2012 7:19 PM

    This all around final really should be exciting. Douglas, Jinnan, Wieber, Iordache, Mustafina, Komova, Qiushuang.. One of the top AA competitors likely won’t even be competing in the first string group. It really is an incredibly deep AA field.

  6. July 16, 2012 8:34 PM

    I have no idea who is going to win the AA, it should be really exciting! The field is wide open!

  7. August 4, 2012 3:01 AM

    Useful information. Fortunate me I discovered your site accidentally, and I’m surprised why this coincidence did not came about earlier! I bookmarked it.

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