A Look at Day 1 Lineups and More
A small preview for today’s qualification. Includes lineups and some general predictions.
Lineups (please forgive me for only including parts of some long names). Skip to the bottom for some predictions.
Subdivision 1: Mexico (full team), Iceland, Guatemala, Egypt, Puerto Rico, Israel, Czech Republic and Trinidad and Tobago (individuals).
Mexico (starts on vault)
VT: Salazar, Lago, Estrada, Moreno, Garcia
UB: Salazar, Lago, Moreno, Cantu, Garcia
BB: Cantu, Lago, Salazar, Garcia, Estrada
FX: Lago, Salazar, Estrada, Garcia, Moreno
Iceland (starts on bars)
Guatemala (starts on bars)
Gomez Porras (AA)
Grande Franco (AA)
Yool Perez (AA)
Egypt (starts on beam)
Mahmoud El Said Mohamed (AA)
El Zeiny (AA)
Puerto Rico (starts on beam)
Mejias Rodriguez (AA)
Israel (starts on floor)
Czech Republic (starts on floor)
Trinidad and Tobago (starts on floor)
Subdivision 2: Romania, Venezuela (full teams), Croatia, Portugal, Finland and Denmark (individuals)
Croatia (starts on vault)
Portugal (starts on vault)
Marques de Lima (AA)
Venezuela (starts on bars)
UB: Medina Chavez/Briceno Frontado/Rojas/Sotillo/Lopez
Romania (starts on beam)
Finland (starts on floor)
Denmark (starts on floor)
Subdivision 3: Australia (full team), Ireland, Turkey, Peru, Vietnam, Chinese Taipei, Kazakhstan, Indonesia and Poland (individuals)
Ireland (starts on vault)
Mc Coo (AA)
Mc Kenna (AA)
Turkey (starts on vault)
Peru (starts on vault)
Vietnam (starts on bars)
Chinese Taipei (starts on bars)
Mai Liu (AA)
Kazakhstan (starts on bars)
Australia (starts on beam)
Indonesia (starts on floor)
Poland (starts on floor)
Subdivision 4: Canada, Greece (full teams), Austria, Jamaica, Armenia, Qatar, Hong Kong, Bulgaria and Costa Rica (individuals)
Austria (starts on vault)
Jamaica (starts on vault)
Armenia (starts on vault)
Qatar (starts on bars)
Hong Kong (starts on bars)
Bulgaria (starts on bars)
Costa Rica (starts on bars)
Canada (starts on beam)
Greece (starts on floor)
Subdivision 5: Uzbekistan, Netherlands (full teams), Sweden, South Africa, Dominican Republic, Lithuania, Argentina, Singapore and Slovakia (individuals)
Sweden (starts on vault)
South Africa (starts on vault)
Dominican Republic (starts on bars)
Lithuania (starts on bars)
Argentina (starts on bars)
Singapore (starts on bars)
Slovakia (starts on bars)
Uzbekistan (starts on beam)
Netherlands (starts on floor)
VT: Rijken/Van Gerner/Moshage/Goedkoop/Masela
UB: Rijken/Masela/Wevers/Goedkoop/Van Gerner
BB: Wevers/Masela/Rijken/Goedkoop/Van Gerner
FX: Goedkoop/Wevers/Masela/Rijken/Van Gerner
Notable lineup changes: Canada pulled Chiarelli for Gerber. The rumor is that they need somebody from Quebec on the team, and Chiarelli hadn’t been hitting her most important event, vault, in training. Romania pulled Andrei for Bulimar, but I think we all expected that.
Team Qualification: 8 out of a total 24 teams will compete today. Those teams, with their 2010 rank, are Romania (4th), Australia (6th), Netherlands (9th), Canada (13th), Greece (19th), Mexico (21st), Venezuela (22nd) and Uzbekistan (24th).
The only lock for team finals, barring a complete disaster, is Romania. Australia will likely make finals. The Netherlands and Canada will both hope to make the top 12. Greece, Mexico, Venezuela and Uzbekistan will try to make the top 16, but it’s not looking all that likely. Venezuela and Mexico probably have the best chance, although apparently Uzbekistan is looking pretty good.
All Around Qualification: We all expect Porgras and Haidu to make it for Romania. In fact, it would probably be embarrassing for Romania not to have two all around qualifiers, even though their emphasis is clearly not on the all around. Lee and Vaculik probably have the best shot for Canada, although Pegg could pass them… or none of them could make it. Van Gerner has a very good chance. If she hits her routines, she is one of the best gymnasts outside of Russia, Romania, USA and China. Mitchell is a shoo-in for Australia, and they will likely qualify a second all arounder. Lopez should make it if she hits. Maksiuta, Pihan-Kulesza, Elizarova and Adlerteg might also have a shot at qualifying. I’d LOVE to see youth olympics star Gomez Porras there as well.
Vault: Maksiuta has a rudi and a double, which means that if she hits, she has a good shot at making it. Pena is trying to do Produnovas and some kind of yurchenko. If she lands them cleanly (ish), I can’t imagine she won’t make finals. If not, she probably won’t (unless her yurchenko is a DTY, then it’s possible). Alexa Moreno also might make finals. The Romanians are not even trying to make finals.
Bars: The bars situation looks pretty bad today. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if all of the bars finalists came from day 2. Maybe Porgras and Racea can make it if others have mistakes. Larissa Miller could do it. I’d love to see Jessica Lopez.Van Gerner made finals at Europeans and Adlerteg has 6.0 difficulty. If everybody hits tomorrow, though, I can’t imagine that more than one of them will be in finals.
Beam: Romania should have two finalists. Porgras and Ponor, probably. Racea if they don’t hit. Mitchell is also likely. All the others, not so much.
Floor: A similar story. Romania will probably have two finalists, although who it will be is unclear. Ponor and Bulimar seem to be favored by the coaches. Van Gerner almost made finals last year and is very clean, but probably doesn’t have the difficulty to make finals, which is a shame because she is very expressive. Mitchell should be in finals, barring disaster.
Themes in Lineups:
- Hiding a gymnast. Do you really think that Haidu is better than Porgras on beam? Or that Chelaru is better than Porgras on bars? Karimdjanova is definitely not superior to Galiulina or Elizarova on beam.
- Team or individual glory? It looks like the team is more important. Romania won’t give Racea a chance in the all around just because she has consistently been Romania’s second best all arounder all year. Haidu is doing it, because she contributes more to the team total on floor. We also see this in Canada’s lineup. Just because Gardiner is the national champion does not mean that she gets to compete all around, or get a better spot in any of the lineups.