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Worlds Poll Results, Your Predictions!

October 5, 2011
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Here are the results for the prediction polls. Thanks to everybody who voted.

I’m going to leave out any gymnast who only received one vote (there were four of them in the all around), to avoid having too many gymnasts in the results. On floor, for example, 17 different gymnasts received a vote, but only 11 received more than one.

Please note when looking at percentages that each reader was allowed to vote for three gymnasts, which means that 33% is really 100%, assuming that everybody used all three votes. Some people must have voted for less than three gymnasts, because Jordyn Wieber, for example, has 36% of the votes for the all around. The percents don’t always add up to 100, and some gymnasts have 0%, because it wasn’t worth calculating them out to the thousandths place.

Because there are no official start lists yet, I included all gymnasts who are in Tokyo in the final results. This includes Anna Li (alternate, injured but still training) and Huang Qiushuang (alternate, but most people who watched training think she will be subbed in). Somebody like Sandra Izbasa, who is not in Tokyo, is in italics at the end of the ranking. Gymnasts whose names are bold are the third or fourth gymnast from their country.

Team

Rank Team Votes Percent
1 United States 237 35%
2 Russia 175 26%
3 Romania 136 20%
4 China 118 17%
5 Italy 3 0%
5 Australia 2 0%
5 Great Britain 2 0%

In the team competition, it looks like readers are predicting that USA will win Gold (34% of votes). Russia (26%) has a decent lead over Romania (21%). China is not far behind, with 18%. Many of the votes for Romania were before it was announced that Izbasa will not be going to worlds, so some of those opinions may be different now. Still, they are all pretty close and Romania can hit. Almost nobody thinks that any team can beat these four, and I think that is pretty accurate. I am surprised, however, that Japan was not one of the few outside teams that received votes. While they may not be strong on vault and floor, they are up there on bars and beam, they have finished 5th in the last two team competitions and they are the home team.

All Around

 

 

Rank Name (Country) Votes Percent
1 Jordyn Wieber (USA) 252 36%
2 Viktoria Komova (RUS) 168 24%
3 Anna Dementyeva (RUS) 74 11%
4 Ana Porgras (ROU) 64 9%
5 Yao Jinnan (CHN) 24 4%
6 Tan Sixin (CHN) 23 3%
7 McKayla Maroney (USA) 20 3%
8 Jiang Yuyuan (CHN) 19 3%
9 Alexandra Raisman (USA) 18 3%
10 Lauren Mitchell (AUS) 12 2%
11 Ksenia Afanasyeva (RUS) 5 1%
12 Huang Qiushuang (CHN) 4 1%
13 Jade Barbosa (BRA) 2 0%

 

 

As expected, America’s new super star Jordyn Wieber came out way ahead of the other options in the all around poll. Viktoria Komova was a distant second, but looks like the favorite for the all around silver. Anna Dementyeva was third about 100 votes behind Komova. The race for third looks like the most interesting one, with Dementyeva, Porgras, Yao, Tan and Maroney within 8 percent of each other. Who will be the unlucky 3rd and 4th gymnasts for China, USA and Russia? Voters seem to think that it will be Jiang, Raisman, Afanasyeva and Huang, but Jiang and Raisman are both less than 5 votes away from their teammates.

Vault

 

Rank Name (Country) Votes Percent
1 McKayla Maroney (USA) 209 33%
2 Alicia Sacramone (USA) 194 31%
3 Oksana Chusovitina (GER) 76 12%
4 Jade Barbosa (BRA) 31 5%
5 Giulia Steingruber (SUI) 21 3%
Sandra Izbasa (ROU) 101 16%

McKayla Maroney took a small lead here over her teammate, Alicia Sacramone, who is the reigning champion. Chusovitina looks like the favorite for bronze because of Izbasa’s injury. It would be great to see her lock up her 2012 spot in Tokyo!

Bars

Rank Name (Country) Votes Percent
1 He Kexin (CHN) 184 28%
2 Beth Tweddle (GBR) 183 28%
3 Viktoria Komova (RUS) 164 25%
4 Elisabeth Seitz (GER) 38 6%
5 Wu Liufang (CHN) 29 4%
6 Jiang Yuyuan (CHN) 20 3%
7 Huang Qiushuang (CHN) 18 3%
8 Tatiana Nabieva (RUS) 8 1%
9 Jordyn Wieber (USA) 2 0%
9 Anna Li (USA) 2 0%
9 Daniele Hypolito (BRA) 2 0%

 

Olympic champion He Kexin is in a virtual tie with reigning world champion Beth Tweddle for the lead here. Both have spectacular 7+ difficulty routines planned. Rising Russian star Viktoria Komova is third, 20 votes out of the lead (she actually lead a week or so ago). Germany’s Elisabeth Seitz, who made finals last year only to fall two times and finish dead last, is third. She has some of the most amazing skills you will ever see, but takes a significant deduction on many of them. China’s Wu Liufang was close behind her. Her Chinese teammates, Jiang and Huang, were 6th and 7th, but remember that only two per country can make finals.

 

 

Beam

Rank Name (Country) Votes Percent
1 Ana Porgras (ROU) 156 23%
2 Catalina Ponor (ROU) 135 20%
3 Viktoria Komova (RUS) 104 16%
4 Jordyn Wieber (USA) 92 14%
5 Anna Dementyeva (RUS) 43 7%
6 Tan Sixin (CHN) 36 5%
7 Sui Lu (CHN) 34 5%
8 Alicia Sacramone (USA) 31 5%
9 Lauren Mitchell (AUS) 27 4%
10 Yao Jinnan (CHN) 7 1%
11 Jade Barbosa (BRA) 2 1%

Ana Porgras is the only 2010 champion to lead in a poll. She is has become more consistent and lost some of her style since she burst onto the scene in 2009. Basically, she has become more Romanian. Catalina Ponor, competing at her first worlds since 2007, sits in second place. She’s another one that you can count on to hit. Viktoria Komova is third once again. She does not have the highest difficulty and she is not the most steady, but her routine includes hardly any built in deductions. Jordyn Wieber, who has been known to deliver some rock solid beam routines under pressure, is in fourth, followed by Anna Dementyeva. I’m a little bit surprised that the Chinese gymnasts, 6th and 7th, are not ranked higher.

Floor

Rank Name (Country) Votes Percent
1 Jordyn Wieber (USA) 124 19%
2 Alexandra Raisman (USA) 92 14%
3 Lauren Mitchell (AUS) 63 10%
4 Diana Chelaru (ROU) 46 7%
5 Anna Dementyeva (RUS) 37 6%
6 Ksenia Afanasyeva (RUS) 36 6%
7 Sui Lu (CHN) 35 5%
8 Beth Tweddle (GBR) 34 5%
9 Catalina Ponor (ROU) 3 0%
10 Ana Porgras (ROU) 2 0%
11 Daiane Dos Santos (BRA) 2 0%
Sandra Izbasa (ROU) 164 25%

Floor is another event where the bronze medal looks like the one up for grabs and Sandra Izbasa’s absence adds a gaping hole to the list. Jordyn Wieber and Alexandra Raisman, who both have amazing dynamic tumbling, are in first and second. Reigning champion Lauren Mitchell is third. She recently debuted a 6.4 routine, the hardest in the world. The next five are within 2% and 12 votes of each other, but there’s a big drop off after that. To be fair, that may be because Ponor, Porgras and Dos Santos were “other” choices.

And just for fun, a medal table with these results. Most surprising thing that you may not have noticed? Only one top 3 finish for China.

 

Country GOLD SILVER BRONZE TOTAL
United States 4 2 0 6
Russia 0 2 3 5
Romania 1 1 1 3
China 1 0 0 1
Great Britain 0 1 0 1
Australia 0 0 1 1
Germany 0 0 1 1

 Thanks to everybody who voted! Let’s see how these results compare to the real ones next week. If I have time, I will write my own predictions after prelims. Also, I’d love constructive criticism about this poll format. Do you think it was effective? Is there anything that you think should have been done differently? Should you have only voted for the winner?

 

 

 

 

 

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