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By the Numbers Worlds Predictions

October 3, 2011
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The All Around has taken the time to compile scores from this year (Highest, Lowest and Average, plus 2010, “Real,” and Difficulty) for the team competition, the all around competition and event finals.

The team results are really interesting. We all know that China, Russia, Romania and the US are making finals if there aren’t any disasters. The US is ranked first in every scenario in 6-3-3, and China is ranked third. Russia and Romania share the honors for second and fourth, with Russia second with, you guessed it, highest and average scores, and Romania second with Lowest scores. It’s notable that Romania has less than a ten point difference between highest and lowest scores

The only other team that qualifies for finals in all three scenarios is Italy. This is a bit surprising, but it’s a pleasant surprise. I guess they have had a consistent year that I hadn’t noticed. They certainly have three stars in Ferrari, Ferlito and Preziosa. They’re also top 6 in finals in all scenarios.

Teams that make finals in two scenarios are Great Britain and Germany. They do not make finals with lowest scores counted.

Then, we get to teams that make it in one scenario, which include Australia, Spain, Japan, Mexico and Venezuela. I expected Japan to be ranked higher, and I do still expect them to make finals, but there is a chance that they won’t. They have been 8th in prelims for the past two major team competitions and finished fifth in finals. Hopefully they won’t let down the home crowd. Australia has clearly had an up and down year, with 5th place for their highest scores and a dismal (for them) 18th place for their lowest scores, a 32 point difference. That’s a bigger difference than the always unpredictable Ukraine!

Making the test event in all scenarios (but never finals) are Brazil, Canada, France, the Netherlands and Ukraine. The Netherlands, 9th last year, is the only one of those teams that is top 10 in all scenarios.

One of those top 17 teams is obviously going to be out according to the predictions. The best bet might be Mexico, which is shockingly ranked 7th for lowest scores, but only 16th for average scores and 17th for highest scores. Venezuela is in a similar position, 8th for average scores but only 17th for average scores and 16th for highest scores. The other seven teams, Belgium, Greece, Hungary, South Korea, Slovenia, Switzerland and Uzbekistan, end up out of the top 16 in all of the scenarios. Switzerland probably has the best shot at sneaking in, but they lost some big scores when Kaeslin retired.

In the all around, unsurprisingly, Wieber is first in all four scenarios (high, low, average and real). We all know that this is her title to win. I already knew that she had a stellar performance day two at nationals, but I did not know that those were her highest scores on ever single event of the season! That’s impressive.

A little surprise is that Lauren Mitchell is second twice! But like the Australians up and down year, Lauren is 22nd when it comes to lowest scores. I really like how Lauren has an atypical approach to the all around in this code and is still a serious medal contender year after year. It seems like vault and bars usually carry both a team and individuals to success all around, but Lauren picks up most of her points on beam and floor.

Anna Dementyeva gets third in two scenarios, but drops down considerably less than Mitchell with her average and lowest scores. I would LOVE to see her medal here to cap off a spectacular year. She has come such a long way. Who would have thought that she would be Russia’s top all arounder coming into worlds last year?

Then there’s Viktoria Komova, who most people think is the only gymnast who can really challenge Wieber for gold, second in average scores. She’s doing DTYs again, and doing them well, according to Blythe. No signs of the Amanar yet, but it isn’t as crazy a thought as it was a few days ago. She’s also upgraded two passes on floor. Unfortunately, she was all over the place in training, but she also trained terribly at the Youth Olympics, so that should give us some hope.

Maroney has the fifth highest real score and beats Raisman everywhere but average scores. She’s tied for first with Wieber in lowest scores. I feel that that, however, is probably the poorest indication of what the results will actually be. Everybody is not going to have their worst day ever, I hope. Still, she looks like a good bet to make finals and be a contender.

Porgras’ rankings went from 4th to 6th. With a double on vault, her chances get better. With a landed bars dismount, this could be her year.

Ksenia Afanasyeva gets 7th for real scores. While I’d love to see her in finals and would be devastated if she has a top 8 finish (totally possible) and doesn’t make it, I am kind of worried that she’ll be perfect during prelims and knock out Dementyeva, only to finish 18th in finals. I still love her, though, and she was sort of hitting bars today.

Raisman gets third in average scores. She qualified third last year but had a meltdown on bars. Hopefully if she makes finals this year, she competes like she did on day one of nationals.

Amelia Racea easily looks like the best bet for the second Romanian all arounder. Haidu is close to her, but I kind of doubt that she will compete all around in prelims.

Tan Sixin is the top ranked Chinese gymnast in all scenarios, which make her a likely candidate for the second Chinese all arounder. Yao Jinnan has consistently been the best at all of the internal test events, and should make it despite her low ranking here.

On vault, McKayla Maroney and Alicia Sacramone are 1-2, all the time. It is important to note that Sacramone’s second vault average probably includes her FTY from classics. Chusovitina is third in all scenarios. Steingruber and Nabieva also appear in the top 8 with real, average and difficulty scores. Moreno, Barbosa, Estrada and Maksyuta all look like good candidates to round out the final, as do Seitz, Peña and Masela for their consistency. I think it would be really awesome if two mexicans made a world final. A gymnast from the Dominican Republic would be quite nice as well.

In all scenarios, Komova, He, Tweddle, Wu, Nabieva, Seitz, Wieber and Li look like the best bets for for finals. Li, of course, is questionable, because she wasn’t training today. If one of them doesn’t make it, I hope one of the wildcards, Kononeko or Dufournet, surprises up and ends up qualifying. Actually, I hope that that happens no matter what, but, well, that’s a Ukrainian. And Dufournet (who is training defs again, but the way).

The top 8 real scores pretty accurately predict who will be in the beam final a well: Mitchell, Porgras, Ponor, Dementyeva, Demyanchuk, Komova, Wieber, Tan and Sui (Tan and Wieber tied). I wouldn’t put my money on Demyanchuk, though. Sacramone would be a better bet. In a perfect world, Livchikova would be there. She’s way down in the predictions because she only learned how to hit a routine a month ago.

On floor, again, the top 8 is a good prediction: Mitchell, Wieber, Tweddle, Afanasyeva, Porgras, Dementyeva, Raisman and Sui. I’d say that spots for Dementyeva and Porgras aren’t secure, the rest probably are with hit routines. Dementyeva has the difficulty, but she also has trouble with her landings. Porgras is lacking the difficulty. Bulimar, if she ends up on the team, or Chelaru, if she is back to her old self, probably have a better shot than Porgras. Once again, in my dream world, Livchikova is here.

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