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Team USA – 2013 Team Analysis

January 3, 2014
by

Alright, here are all of the numbers that you never knew you wanted. You may still not want them, but if you’re a super nerd like me, analyzing teams is fun! Here are some select optimized teams using team USA’s 2013 scores. This kind of optimization, particularly with the average scores, was quite successful in predicting the members of the fierce five (not that we didn’t all see that team coming).

These are not all of the teams that I have calculated (only about 1/3), and if you are interested in seeing more of them, I’d be happy to publish them as well (or send you my mess of a spreadsheet). I am, however, only going to publish two teams in each category of gymnast’s high scores, low scores, average scores and highest credited difficulty scores.  Those categories are

  • Six-person teams using scores of gymnasts from the 2013 Senior National Team
    This is essentially who we would expect to have made a world team this year if there had been a team competition at worlds
  • Five-person teams using scores of gymnasts from the 2013 Senior and Junior National Teams, in addition to gymnasts who are not on the current national team but competed internationally this year
    These teams can be thought of as a super early, unrealistic Rio prediction. Please keep in mind, this is just what the number are telling us. If I took a stats class, maybe I would be able to calculate how unrepresentative this type of data has been in the past, but I’m not really into stats (okay, this is all kind of stats related, but I used CS so it’s okay!)

These scores are almost all from USAG’s official results page. If difficulty scores weren’t listed there, the girls lose out on that difficulty. If somebody wants to provide additional difficulty scores, feel free to do so. I got some of the Mexican Open scores, but not all of them. I wanted to include that because it was a legitimate international assignment. You can see the scores I was working with here (I strongly recommend downloading the excel file).

Alright, here they are. Some of the teams, with counting scores in bold!

HIGH SCORES

6 Seniors Vault Bars Beam Floor All Around
Simone Biles 15.933 14.850 15.100 15.233 61.116
McKayla Maroney 16.000 14.300 12.666 15.250 58.216
Elizabeth Price 15.700 14.833 13.833 14.466 58.832
Kyla Ross 15.366 15.500 15.250 14.500 60.616
MyKayla Skinner 15.250 13.550 14.250 15.000 58.050
Madison Kocian 14.950 15.000 14.800 13.700 58.450
Total 47.633 45.350 45.150 45.483 183.616
5 Gymnasts Vault Bars Beam Floor All Around
Simone Biles 15.933 14.85 15.1 15.233 61.116
McKayla Maroney 16 14.3 12.666 15.25 58.216
Elizabeth Price 15.7 14.833 13.833 14.466 58.832
Kyla Ross 15.366 15.5 15.25 14.5 60.616
Bailie Key 15.1 14.45 15.55 15 60.1
Total 47.633 45.183 45.9 45.483 184.199

AVERAGE SCORES

6 Seniors Vault Bars Beam Floor All Around
Simone Biles 15.852 14.391 14.485 14.692 59.419
McKayla Maroney 15.775 14.300 12.666 14.696 57.437
Kyla Ross 15.247 15.250 14.759 14.069 59.325
Kennedy Baker 14.117 13.617 14.417 14.300 56.450
Madison Kocian 14.700 14.517 13.617 13.417 56.250
Madison Desch 14.600 12.175 13.733 14.650 55.158
 Total 46.874 44.157 43.661 44.037 178.729
5 Gymnasts Vault Bars Beam Floor All Around
Simone Biles 15.852 14.391 14.485 14.692 59.419
McKayla Maroney 15.775 14.300 12.666 14.696 57.437
Kyla Ross 15.247 15.250 14.759 14.069 59.325
Norah Flatley 13.783 14.000 15.050 13.467 56.300
Katelyn Ohashi 14.900 14.566 15.333 14.400 59.199
Total 46.874 44.207 45.142 43.787 180.010

LOW SCORES
note: I let Ohashi’s scores count as highs and averages, but I am not counting them as lows.

6 Seniors Vault Bars Beam Floor All Around
Kennedy Baker 13.850 13.550 14.300 14.050 55.750
Simone Biles 15.733 13.05 13.133 13.7 55.616
Madison Kocian 14.450 14.100 12.800 12.900 54.250
McKayla Maroney 15.6 14.3 12.666 14.333 56.899
Elizabeth Price 14.233 12.25 13.5 14.366 54.349
Kyla Ross 15.166 14.55 14.533 13.35 57.599
Total 46.499 42.950 42.333 42.749 174.531
5 Gymnasts Vault Bars Beam Floor All Around
Kennedy Baker 13.850 13.550 14.300 14.050 55.750
Simone Biles 15.733 13.05 13.133 13.7 55.616
Norah Flatley 13.750 13.750 14.600 13.250 55.350
McKayla Maroney 15.6 14.3 12.666 14.333 56.899
Kyla Ross 15.166 14.55 14.533 13.35 57.599
Total 46.499 42.600 43.433 42.083 174.615

DIFFICULTY SCORES

6 Seniors Vault Bars Beam Floor All Around
Simone Biles 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.5 25.2
Peyton Ernst 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.0 24.1
Kyla Ross 5.8 6.4 6.0 5.7 23.9
MyKayla Skinner 6.4 5.6 6.2 6.4 24.6
Lexie Priessman 6.3 5.9 5.4 6.3 23.9
Elizabeth Price 5.8 6.3 0.0 0.0 12.1
Total 19 18.8 18.8 19.2 75.8
5 Gymnasts Vault Bars Beam Floor All Around
Simone Biles 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.5 25.2
Brenna Dowell 6.3 6.1 5.8 6.2 24.4
Kyla Ross 5.8 6.4 6.0 5.7 23.9
MyKayla Skinner 6.4 5.6 6.2 6.4 24.6
Bailie Key 5.8 5.4 6.5 6.0 23.7
Total 19.0 18.6 19.0 19.1 75.7

QUICK OBSERVATIONS

  • Biles, Maroney and Ross are on all of the teams (excluding difficulty for Maroney). They really are carrying this team
  • I expected to see Brenna and Bailie on more of these teams.
  • I was surprised to see Flatley, Baker and Desch on these teams, especially the average score teams which are most representative of the true situation.
  • There were 924 possible combinations of gymnasts to make up each of the 6 senior teams. There were 26,334(!) possible combinations of gymnasts to make up each of the 5 gymnast teams. Math is fun, guys!
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3 Comments leave one →
  1. polkadot permalink
    January 28, 2014 8:31 PM

    america is great, but i’m also proud of this guy from singapore! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbzwvgssVuI

  2. Tasha permalink
    March 17, 2014 6:38 PM

    What would it be if you took out baker (since she is now officially retired) and I ohashi (since she has been out for basically a year)?

  3. June 2, 2014 9:04 AM

    This must take a lot of time end effort, but it looks great when you get it published on here. Great work, and thanks for the stats!

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